The nightmare of climate change and the utopia of adaptation villages
A book review
Urbanism for a Difficult Future: Practical Responses to the Climate Crisis, by Korkut Onaran, New York, Routledge, 2023.
Since the early-2000s, literature from the built environment disciplines is replete with books offering roadmaps for cities to survive or thrive in a world of climate change. Urbanism for a Difficult Future joins this ever-expanding sub-genre. Many of these books have an important place in the literary canon. They are especially useful for translating complex ideas around cities and adaptation into actionable strategies for general audiences. They can even inspire new students; it was Richard Register’s Ecocities that got me into the game over 15 years ago.
Like any genre that becomes saturated with content, the ‘cities sailing the rough seas of climate change adaptation’ sub-genre is starting to feel a bit familiar and maybe even a little tired. Perhaps too many unrealised or unnecessarily grand visions have been put forward in literature, while cities have continued to adapt, or not, in their own ways in the real world. Considering this, I don’t mind admitting I approached Urbanism for a Difficult Future with a dual sense of fatigue and déjà vu. Do we need more books on this topic? Probably not. Does Onaran’s slim volume add anything new? Not really. Is it worth your time? Maybe…depending on how you view the problem.
The back cover copy states this new volume will appeal to students, planners, and policymakers. That is not strictly true. The first few pages make explicit that Onaran has designed the book for a small subset of the above, referred to as ‘transitionalists’. This milieu is characterised by those who prioritise adaptation over mitigation, seeing climate change as something inevitable but not necessarily apocalyptic. Those most likely to appreciate this book are probably already supporters of the transition town movement. It could be of some interest to other readers, but they may not open it again after the first read.
The author presents strong and compelling arguments to make the case for adaptation over mitigation. Almost all my own research is in the adaptation space, and I can confirm this chapter provides an excellent overview. The benefits of adaptation are well presented. Adaptation is not discussed as a total alternative to mitigation. Instead, Onaran explains it as a critical pathway forward in a world where mitigation still has a role but cannot prevent the onset of serious climate change impacts. Within this context of adaptation as principal action, the task for cities is to find ways to continue as best they can, mostly by becoming more self-sufficient.
Interestingly, the book envisions the period 2060-2090, rather than the time between now and then. Onaran presents it as a manual that outlines principles and strategies to adapt built environments for a time when climate disasters are expected to proliferate. Its emphasis is on a form of radical localisation. Speaking to a future where large-scale systems are no longer reliable, the author emphasises ways for local communities to achieve diverse economies and governance models to strengthen resilience.
The overarching objective is ‘equilibrium in localisation’ – an idea that sets localism as the key platform of resilience. Onaran conceptualises adaptation as inherently tied to local-scale urbanism. Noting that localism is a lesser focus of contemporary urban planning activity, Onaran argues that the rolling disaster of climate change will force a scalar downshift over time. The adaptive solution for places where resilience is impossible is managed relocation; some communities will have to move to survive, whether they want to or not. Unfortunately, the book lacks a thorough discussion on the limitations and economics of relocation, particularly in cases where millions of people may need to be relocated from major cities.
One of Onaran’s core constructs is the ‘adaptation village.’ It envisions tight communities where residents are involved in productive activities for mutual benefit. Water is collected, energy is produced, food is grown, and waste is managed, all at the local scale, within a 15-minute walking shed. With the adaptation village as principal settlement form, the book covers all the associated factors in reasonable detail: size, density, design, material flows, energy, water, food, and production.
The concept is like a contemporary return to the villages of pre-industrial societies, with the assumption of modern civility and high levels of social capital. Apparently, the threat of climate change will compel people to want this model. This is a questionable logic. The logistics are also shaky and not satisfactorily considered. Quite how billions of urbanised people can be resettled into adaptation villages is not satisfactorily addressed, unfortunately. It might work for the few, but it will not suit the many.
Urbanism for a Difficult Future spins a good tale but is short on discussion of complex pragmatics. Adaptation villages are a charming idea but if the climate emergency becomes as serious as this book suggests it might, then orderly transitions are unlikely at scale. It’s like there are two, unreconciled worlds at the heart of this book: the nightmare of climate change and the utopia of adaptation villages. The core problem is that the book does not convincingly reconcile fantasy with reality. It’s not a bad read, I just didn’t find it offered anything too meaningful by way of real-world problem diagnosis or solution.